I did some further analysis looking at the shooting data, based on more feedback and discussion on Twitter yesterday.
Again, I started with the 5 seasons of shooting data, men and women, with the current season up to the 5th event. I then filtered for Mass Starts and Pursuits, and did some data cleaning, leaving 96,580 shots for the analysis, not limiting the data by certain ranks only.
Question 1
Aldo Ramos on Twitter wondered if we could determine the percentages of athletes that would go clean on the first 15 shots, and then had one miss. And where did that miss happen?
After moving the data back and forth between Tableau and Google Sheets, I was able to show what percentage of athletes clean on the first 15 missed their 16th target, or went clear on the first 16 and missed the 17th target, etc.
For clarity’s sake, the T16 column includes MHHHH, MMHHH, MMMHH, etc. The question was really about at what shot the “Clean spell” is broken. As athletes pick up more misses as the fifth shooting goes on, the percentages go down. Other than going clean on all 20, which 41% of the athletes clean after 15 achieve.
Question 2
Bjorn then asked on Twitter how many athletes missed more than one shot in the last shooting.
The chart above shows all sequences of the last 5 shots. As we saw above 41% goes clean all the way, after that the most common occurrence is missing the 16th shot, then missing shot 20 with 8.44%, etc.
But it doesn’t really clearly answer Bjorn’s question of how many misses in the last five were shot. The chart below answers that question more clearly:
Just over 40% went clear, and the same percentage had one miss. The group with two misses was 15%, three misses 2.5% and just over 1% missed four times. No one in the group that hit the first 15 shots had 5 misses in the last shooting.